Copper Consumption in New Energy Vehicles H1 2025 [SMM Analysis]

[SMM Analysis:Copper Consumption in New Energy Vehicles H1 2025] On July 16, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing:January-June 2025 NEV production reached 6.968 million units, representing a 41.4% year-on-year increase.According to SMM estimates, full-year 2025 NEV production is forecast at 16.29 million units, with second-half production expected to reach 9.32 million units.

[SMM Analysis] Before the deadline of US S232 settlement, Offshore market remains silent.

[SMM Analysis:It Was Like Turning the Tide When All Hope Seemed Lost ] On the morning of June 27, 2025, China’s leading smelting companies concluded a landmark negotiation that will go down in the history of the copper industry: The mid-year TC/RC settlement between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters was finalized at $0.0/dmt and 0.0 cents/lb.

[SMM Analysis: It's Like Turning the Tide Back] In the past three years, when China's smelters have been concentrating on commissioning their smelting capacity, the mid-year and year-end negotiations between China's smelters and Antofagasta have been particularly challenging. Since the end of last month, Antofagasta has consistently maintained a -$15 offer for the mid-year negotiations with China's smelters from the first round to the third round, refusing to make any concessions. Miners are confident in the production resilience of China's smelters and the diminishing expectations for production cuts, so they refuse to make any concessions. China's smelters have risen to the challenge, and under the rational arguments of the two leading smelters involved in the negotiations, one of the leading smelters eventually took the lead in reaching a $0 agreement with Antofagasta this morning without making any concessions on other terms, with other participating Chinese smelters following suit. Previously, there had been an abundance of pessimistic market expectations, with bearish and production cut sentiments echoing. Given that miners had insisted on a -$15 offer through multiple rounds, the market generally expected that China's smelters would have to compromise on negative numbers and be forced to enter an era of negative long-term contracts. Judging from the results, this negotiation is akin to turning the tide back and preventing a collapse.

Under the terms of the deal, Rock Tech will supply battery-grade lithium hydroxide from its forthcoming refinery in Guben, Germany, to Ronbay's cathode manufacturing facility in Konin, Poland. This vertical integration creates a seamless supply chain that reduces reliance on imports and shortens delivery times for European battery manufacturers.

After the COMEX price surged in May 2024, the LME-COMEX price spread significantly widened, leading to changes in global copper cathode trade flows. Entering 2025, due to expectations of Trump's tariffs, global large traders shipped all deliverable sources to the US, reducing the amount of copper cathode imports that would have come to China.

According to SMM data, starting from March 6, 2025, SMM mainstream copper cathode social warehouse inventories began consecutive destocking, with a total reduction exceeding 20,000 mt over the past three statistical periods. As of March 14, 2025, domestic copper cathode inventories totaled 345,500 mt, down 33,600 mt YoY, indicating that the destocking turning point in 2025 arrived earlier than in 2024.

On January 2, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a file titled “Notice on Adjustments to the Public Consultation for the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Exporting from China.” The notice mentions the potential implementation of export restrictions on battery and lithium processing related technologies. The deadline for feedback submission is February 1, 2025.

The management team confirms that the company has been in negotiations with potential long-term off-takers.